From the course: Business Math
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Probabilities: Life insurance and the weather
From the course: Business Math
Probabilities: Life insurance and the weather
- A lot of decisions in life are based on our assessment of probabilities. Probability is the chance that an event will occur. A probability is often stated in percentage terms. For example, there is 15% chance that your academic paper will be accepted for publication. Or with your test scores, there is an 80% probability you'll be accepted to the graduate program. We will look at four different situations involving probabilities: dice, two-point conversions in American football, the chance of rain, and life insurance. Now, a numbered cube is a common device for generating random numbers in a game. We call these dice, although I guess technically a single cube should be called a die. I'll just say dice. Dice have six sides, with each side containing a different number of dots from one up to six. The probability to give a number one through six will appear face up when you roll the dice is 16.7%, 1/6. There's no mystery here. If the cube is constructed properly and is bounced around…
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Contents
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Low-probability events: Fear of flying, black swans, and extinction of the dinosaurs4m 57s
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Famous averages: Dow Jones and consumer prices6m 29s
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Income distribution: The difference between mean and median4m 34s
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Probabilities: Life insurance and the weather5m 53s
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Conditional probabilities and counting cards7m 20s
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Variance and the concept of risk6m 15s
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