From the course: Business Math
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Calibrate uncertainty: What is the wingspan of a 747?
From the course: Business Math
Calibrate uncertainty: What is the wingspan of a 747?
- Successfully making decisions in life requires making lots of estimates. A danger is forgetting that your estimates are exactly that, just estimates. You don't know for sure. It's useful to have some idea of the level of your uncertainty. You need to know what you don't know. For example, let's say that you have hiked from the rim of the Grand Canyon down to the Colorado River where you've camped overnight. The next morning, you're going to hike back up to the rim. Your friend wants to greet you at the rim to congratulate you on the successful completion of the hike. So, how long will it take for you to hike from your camping area near the river up to the rim? Well, if you search online, you can see that the average hiking time is five hours. So, should you tell your friend that you will leave the campground at 7:00 am and arrive at the rim exactly five hours later at noon? No, there's a good chance that your friend will miss the grand completion of your hike. You need to know that…
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Numerical estimation: How many windshield wiper blades are sold in Salt Lake City each year?4m
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Calibrate uncertainty: What is the wingspan of a 747?5m 22s
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Identifying key variables: What is the value of your neighbor's house?6m 9s
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What would it cost to construct a custom-made oak table?5m 34s
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