- [Instructor] We, as a human race,…have been historically awful at making predictions.…So why do we keep doing it?…Well, in 2011, the authors…of the popular series Freakonomics,…Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt,…argued that there are just huge benefits…to people who can make predictions correctly,…and there is no punishment…for people who make bad predictions,…mostly because bad predictions are immediately forgotten.…So there is this huge incentive…for someone to keep making predictions…over and over and over again,…no matter how right or wrong he or she is.…
Think about it.…In terms of probability,…you only have to be right 51% of the time.…People will remember that 1%.…Okay, so if people are so bad at making predictions,…why do we have these experts that we rely on?…That, my friends, is because we don't really know that much.…The world is too complicated to be predicted with accuracy,…and we, as humans, are wired to avoid uncertainty.…But these experts, they know one thing.…This one thing gives them a significant advantage…
Skill Level Intermediate
Data Visualization: A Lesson and Listen Serieswith Bill Shander3h 2m Intermediate
Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davilawith Eddie Davila2h 50m Intermediate
Data in our lives1m 50s
Episode One: Predictions
Episode Two: Discrimination
Episode Three: Ethical Considerations
4. Episode Four: The little chips that control you
Episode Five: The Quantified Self
Episode Six: The fork in the road
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