Advanced draft preparation

you have all your data, maybe you have some mock drafts you looked at, cheat sheets, all that sort of stuff, but let's actually work with the data here. What I did here was I downloaded some statistics for quarterbacks only. Now you probably want to download the same statistics for each and every position, and that got our list down to about, you know, 50-plus quarterbacks, as you can see right here, so we can now start playing around with the data for these folks. The thing is we're trying to create some rankings, trying to create some tiers, and so we want to figure out what are these players worth. In a lot of cases you might be downloading the data from your hosting site, so they might have done some of these calculations for you, but if you're just starting out or if you're just, just you really want to do this yourself we're going to create a formula, and so we can see right here is I created this really long formula, but it's very simple. What it's going to allow me to do is to take each one of these categories, passing attempts, completions, passing yards, and then I'm going to give them a value, and what the formula's going to do is going to allow me to say for, let's say for touchdowns, if a touchdown is worth four points I could put four points here. It's going to add, it's going to multiply the four points times the touchdowns, and it's going to allow me to add all those values, and as you can see right here I just basically, I utilized those dollar signs so that I can now copy down, and I'll have access to everything. So we're going to do this with two systems. We're going to do a traditional system and then we're going to do the very different type of system, a customized system, so you can see how this can be helpful in seeing that sometimes the rankings you're seeing, if they're just a traditional system, might not work very well with your particular league. So in your most traditional system usually you're getting what, about one point for every 25 yards passing, so in reality that means that for every pass yard you're getting about 0.025 points. Passing touchdown is usually worth four points, interception, that's negative, so you're losing two points for that, rush yards, you get one point for every 10 yards you get, so that's going to be worth 0.1 per rushing yard, rushing touchdown, that's worth six, and a fumble usually you're losing two points for that. So you can see right here these are the number of points that that player got last season. Let's now take a look at a completely different system, customized system over here, and we're going to talk about why I've highlighted these players in just a moment, so this is a system that I use in a super nerdy league where we're looking for efficiency from the players. We don't just want you to be good, we want you to be good with every opportunity that you have, so in this case we actually punish you a little bit for throwing a pass, but if you complete that pass you get your points back and then some. For every pass yard, that's a good thing, we're going to give you a point as well. Passing touchdown, we make those pretty lofty, so we're a pretty quarterback-friendly league because quarterbacks, they're kind of the most important player in football, so we think that they should be pretty important in Fantasy Football as well, so we give them 60 points for a pass touchdown, and then again when they throw an interception we take away 45 points, and then we do the same thing with runs, and this plays out a lot better with your running backs, but with your quarterback what'll happen here is we take away four points because what we do is we give the running back two points per yard, so the idea here is that the moment you give and going to look at the standard deviation for this particular group. for this particular group. Now I understand each player Now I understand each player has their own standard deviation, has their own standard deviation, because you know, if you look at players here because you know, if you look at players here you might have a Kansas City quarterback you might have a Kansas City quarterback that's really young, a lot of promise, that's really young, a lot of promise, their opportunities to be great, or maybe to stumble, their opportunities to be great, or maybe to stumble, are much, much different than let's say are much, much different than let's say a quarterback from New York who's a little older a quarterback from New York who's a little older and really on the downside of their career, and really on the downside of their career, and the opportunities for them and the opportunities for them to be really great are much, much more limited, to be really great are much, much more limited, and the opportunities for them to actually fall off and the opportunities for them to actually fall off are probably a little bit greater, are probably a little bit greater, so again, we're just doing this to do it quick and simple. so again, we're just doing this to do it quick and simple. Now I've got my average for my group. Now I've got my average for my group. I have my standard deviation for my group, I have my standard deviation for my group, and then what I'm going to do is I'm going to and then what I'm going to do is I'm going to figure out how many standard deviations figure out how many standard deviations these quarterbacks are from the mean, these quarterbacks are from the mean, so I'm going to take their total points, so I'm going to take their total points, subtract it from the average, subtract it from the average, and then I'm going to divide by and then I'm going to divide by the standard deviation for that group. the standard deviation for that group. Then I'm going to standardize those cells by pressing Then I'm going to standardize those cells by pressing command + T on my keyboard for those two items, command + T on my keyboard for those two items, and if you're on a PC that's F4. and if you're on a PC that's F4. All right, so now I'm able to take All right, so now I'm able to take this formula and just copy it down. this formula and just copy it down. I'm going to do that for my group, I'm going to do that for my group, and what you'll see is that we have and what you'll see is that we have some really obvious tiers. some really obvious tiers. You can see that, you know, You can see that, you know, we have one extremely elite quarterback. we have one extremely elite quarterback. You have another tier, let's say right here, You have another tier, let's say right here, of very good quarterbacks, of very good quarterbacks, and then you have a bunch of average and then you have a bunch of average and maybe then really below average quarterbacks, and maybe then really below average quarterbacks, so you get the idea of what we're doing there. so you get the idea of what we're doing there. Now the next thing I like to do, Now the next thing I like to do, so when I'm, you know, whether I'm in an auction draft so when I'm, you know, whether I'm in an auction draft or whether I'm in a straight draft or whether I'm in a straight draft I can now say to myself, "Wow, there's one quarterback, I can now say to myself, "Wow, there's one quarterback, "that KC quarterback, if I can get them, that's great, "that KC quarterback, if I can get them, that's great, "but if I miss out on them there's this whole other group "but if I miss out on them there's this whole other group "of people that kind of are very similar." "of people that kind of are very similar." The next thing I would want to do, The next thing I would want to do, remember this is data based on last year. remember this is data based on last year. You could also do this using your projected data You could also do this using your projected data that you got from your websites as well. that you got from your websites as well. Now remember, one of those is looking backwards, Now remember, one of those is looking backwards, so this year's going to be different. so this year's going to be different. The other one is using some crazy methodology, The other one is using some crazy methodology, we don't know what it is, we don't know what it is, and so how much can that be trusted? and so how much can that be trusted? So the data is kind of dirty in either direction, So the data is kind of dirty in either direction, and that's why we want to kind of go to real life as well. and that's why we want to kind of go to real life as well. What are we hearing in the news, What are we hearing in the news, let's look at the depth charts, let's look at the depth charts, let's see which players are moving up in the rankings, let's see which players are moving up in the rankings, which players are moving down in the rankings, which players are moving down in the rankings, and that might, you know, while this tells me and that might, you know, while this tells me that this player right here is a 0.493, that this player right here is a 0.493, I might say to myself, "You know what, I might say to myself, "You know what, "with all the changes that's happened, "with all the changes that's happened, "that have happened in that particular team, "that have happened in that particular team, "I think I'm going to move this person up into this blue tier, "I think I'm going to move this person up into this blue tier, "and I'm, you know, this player right here, "and I'm, you know, this player right here, "they got injured at the end of last season. "they got injured at the end of last season. "I don't know if they're going to be able to recover. "I don't know if they're going to be able to recover. "I'm going to drop him down to a tier three, "I'm going to drop him down to a tier three, "or maybe a tier four." "or maybe a tier four." The other thing I worry about, though, The other thing I worry about, though, is what if I'm missing a player? is what if I'm missing a player? What happens if this group of 23, What happens if this group of 23, yeah, I knocked two players out, I bumped players up, yeah, I knocked two players out, I bumped players up, I knocked some other players down, I knocked some other players down, but how about if there's a player down here but how about if there's a player down here that I just didn't notice, they're ready to break out, that I just didn't notice, they're ready to break out, so what I like to do, again, so what I like to do, again, I'm all about trying to find efficiency, I'm all about trying to find efficiency, who is using their opportunities better than everyone else, who is using their opportunities better than everyone else, and these are quarterbacks, and these are quarterbacks, so an opportunity for them is throwing the ball. so an opportunity for them is throwing the ball. So what I want to do is how many points So what I want to do is how many points are these players getting per attempt, are these players getting per attempt, so I'm going to divide the points per attempt, so I'm going to divide the points per attempt, and again, what I'm going to do is going to copy this down. and again, what I'm going to do is going to copy this down. And what you're going to see is that And what you're going to see is that many of these are really very similar, many of these are really very similar, but notice what happened here. but notice what happened here. While most of these quarterbacks are getting While most of these quarterbacks are getting about 0.3 points or so per attempt, about 0.3 points or so per attempt, this quarterback right here, this quarterback right here, they're getting about 0.76 points, they're getting about 0.76 points, so you know what, I'm taking that quarterback, so you know what, I'm taking that quarterback, who is sort of off my list, and I'm bumping him up, who is sort of off my list, and I'm bumping him up, and maybe what I'll even do, let's do something else here. and maybe what I'll even do, let's do something else here. Why don't I come up here and see what these quarterbacks do? Why don't I come up here and see what these quarterbacks do? So you can now see that this quarterback down here, So you can now see that this quarterback down here, the 0.76 points per attempt, wow, that's a huge outlier. the 0.76 points per attempt, wow, that's a huge outlier. Now I also want you to notice, though, Now I also want you to notice, though, and again, we can keep digging into the data here, and again, we can keep digging into the data here, you can also notice that this quarterback you can also notice that this quarterback has a ton of rush yards and some rushing touchdowns, has a ton of rush yards and some rushing touchdowns, so that's going to be something we want to play with, so that's going to be something we want to play with, but again, this has now gotten you but again, this has now gotten you to the point where you now, you have your list, to the point where you now, you have your list, you have your data, you created your tiers. you have your data, you created your tiers. Wow, I think you might be ready for your Fantasy draft. Wow, I think you might be ready for your Fantasy draft.