- [Instructor] I'm in exercise file 01_05_Begin…on the worksheet named Initialize the Level.…Now that we have the baseline's level initialized…along with its seasonal effects, we can start the process…of forecasting, the first step in that process…is to define a range name that uses a mixed reference.…That is in this case, an absolute reference to a column…and a relative reference to a row.…The purpose of the name is to pick up the value…of the seasonal effect on the previous time…the season took place.…
I'm going to switch worksheets here to Get Seasonal Effects.…Start by selecting cell H8, click the Formulas tab…on the ribbon, and locate the defined names group.…Click the Define Name button.…In the Name headed box, type the name OneYearBack.…In the Scope dropdown, select the name…of the active worksheet here that is Get Seasonal Effects.…Enter a comment if you'd like,…something such as last year's seasonal effect.…
Drag through whatever you see in the Refers to edit box…and click in cell J2, move the dialog box around the screen…
- Identify what distinguishes seasonality from a trend or a cycle.
- Explore how to use absolute and relative references in defined names, and recall that absolute reference always remain static while relative references change depending on precedent.
- Identify seasonality in a baseline by examining autocorrelation functions in a correlogram.
- Explore how to initialize seasonal effects in a baseline.
- Forecast the current level of the baseline and the current seasonal effect from prior observations, forecasts, and smoothing constants.
- Quantify a measure of the aggregate error in a forecast, and minimize it using Solver.
- Establish a baseline in a data object and forecast from that baseline in R.
- Compare Excel and R results.