- Assembling the forecast equation for a trended baseline
- Simple exponential smoothing with a stationary baseline
- Using R for simple exponential smoothing
- Optimizing the level and trend constants via Solver
- Using R to forecast a trended series
Skill Level Advanced
- [Instructor] Welcome to my course on forecasting trended baselines. Now if you take this course here's what you can expect to learn. Trended baselines such as the sales of a new and successful product tend to increase over time and if you chart them you often see a line that's trending upwards. Products entering the final stage of their life cycle trend down. There are many other examples but the characteristic that they all have in common is the need for a forecasting technique that recognizes and accounts for the trend.
That's what you'll find here, an approach to forecasting, often called Holt's Method that can deal with trend in a baseline. I show you how to create those forecasts using Holt's Method in R so that you can get to the results quickly as well as in Excel so that you can see what's going on behind the scenes in R. So let's get started.