Learn about how to perform a forecast on real world data.
- [Instructor] Ed is stumped.…Ed's boss has asked him…to forecast flows in and out of REITs.…If you recall, Ed is our economist friend…who works for a commercial real estate firm,…and his coss is concerned that flows in and out…of real estate investment trusts…might have something to do with the level of funding…and level of competition that Ed's company faces.…So Ed's gone through and he's gathered data…on real estate investment trust asset inflows and outflows.…
Along with a variety of other potentially related variables…from the period 1986 through 2012.…Here's Ed's problem though.…One of the primary factors he believe that drives…flows in and out of tax sensitive asset classes like REITs…is the long-term capitol gains rate.…Ed's gathered long-term capitol gains data…from 1986 through 2012.…And he's observed that it appears…there's roughly four different tax regimes…that have been in place during that period.…
Prior to 1987,…tax rates, according to Ed's data, were roughly 20%.…After 1987, long-term capitol gains rates rose to 28%.…
Professor Michael McDonald demonstrates how to harness the wealth of information available on the Internet to forecast statistics such as industry growth, GDP, and unemployment rates, as well as factors that directly affect your business, like property prices and future interest rate hikes. All you need is Microsoft Excel. Michael uses the built-in formulas, functions, and calculations to perform regression analysis, calculate confidence intervals, and stress test your results. He also covers time series exponential smoothing, fixed effects regression, and difference estimators. You'll walk away from the course able to immediately begin creating forecasts for your own business needs.
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- Identify a good source of free data.
- Name the term for the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Tell which statistic offers a bounds on the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Assess the type of variable that can be used to capture fixed effects.
- Cite the method by which a forecast can be done with a regression.