In this video, learn how to use constraints to minimize RMSE.
- [Instructor] If you know what's going on…it's pretty simple to get the bottom (mumbling)…of a forecast with exponential smoothing…by using the freeware application R…I've demonstrated in this lesson.…Of course, you'll need to have R installed on your computer.…I use Excel for a lot of preliminary analysis…and it's convenient for me to import data directly into R…from an open Excel workbook.…On the screen you see a worked out example…of smoothing using Solver.…We'll start by selecting the data I want to analyze.…
Now I'll read the selected data into R.…To do that I use an R package named DescTools.…The first step is to load DescTools into R.…DescTools is not one of the packages…that is automatically installed…when you install R on your computer.…If you're going to use DescTools…then you'll need to call R's install packages command…to download and install DescTools on your computer.…
Depending on which version of R you are using…you may need to also install a packaged named RDCOMClient.…R will warn you if you need to install it…
- Demonstrate how to evaluate a baseline using a correlogram.
- Identify the drawbacks of using Microsoft Excel’s exponential smoothing tool.
- Explain the different ways you can initialize the first forecast.
- Compare the average raw deviation forecast with the mean absolute deviation forecast method.
- Break down the reasons to use R instead of Excel for exponential smoothing.