From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila
Political polls
From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila
Political polls
- [Instructor] In politics, poll results are currency. They're used to raise money, motivate candidates, identify and sway undecided voters, and also, to tell a story. More than ever, statistics drives politics, which often makes people wonder, with so much money and effort behind these polls, why does every poll tell a different story? Political polls are based on surveys of people. People might be approached by a pollster on the street. They might be called at home or on their cell phone. In some cases, people may complete an online survey. Each polling group develops their own method for gathering data. It doesn't take a lot of statistical know-how to realize data collection is sometimes flawed. Lots of people can easily escape being polled, and some are less likely to answer certain types of surveys, so some groups may be very underrepresented in certain types of polls. And even those that are polled might still be undecided or some people may be for one candidate today but still considering another. Others know exactly who they'll vote for, but they're too shy or embarrassed to tell the pollster. And of course, who's to say that any of these people will actually show up to vote? With so much possible variability, it's important to consider each polling organization and their methods. Also consider the influence of polls in raising money, swing voters, and even in identifying opportunities. Thus, there are many different polling organizations with different agendas. There are also some different groups that value different polls at different times. Some groups use polls to signal a need or opportunity to raise money, others use polls to signal strength to undecided voters. And even a leading candidate may wanna publicize a poll that makes them look vulnerable in an effort to motivate their base to actually show up and vote. By changing their methodology, a poll could purposefully or just accidentally overrepresent one demographic and completely miss others. And don't forget to consider the questions asked in these surveys. The phrasing of the question and the available answers to each question might provide very different outcomes from the very same group of people. Nonetheless, a good statistician can look through dozens of different polls, understand the individual methodologies and the questions used, and sometimes, together, all of these polls might tell an interesting story. An interesting story for statisticians, anyway. Next time you see polling results, slow down and consider what's being reported, and not just what's being reported, but how the data was collected. Use your statistics foundation to help you better understand the different pieces of the political puzzle. If you wanna know more, check out my Statistics Foundations course in the library.
Contents
-
-
-
Political polls3m 14s
-
(Locked)
Different sports, different stats4m 42s
-
(Locked)
Test scores2m 59s
-
(Locked)
Data collection2m 40s
-
(Locked)
Birthdays in the USA3m 15s
-
The house always wins4m 1s
-
(Locked)
Wisdom of the crowd3m 12s
-
(Locked)
The pay gap at Uber3m 58s
-
(Locked)
Cancer survival rates4m 22s
-
(Locked)
Television ratings4m 15s
-
(Locked)
Historic stats stories4m 28s
-
(Locked)
The one percent3m 58s
-
(Locked)
New Year's Eve3m 28s
-
(Locked)
Influenza3m 17s
-
(Locked)
Winter is coming3m 11s
-
The Super Bowl4m 39s
-
(Locked)
Genetics3m 45s
-
(Locked)
Relationships3m 48s
-
(Locked)
The box office2m 39s
-
(Locked)
Unemployment2m 41s
-
(Locked)
Waiting in lines4m 29s
-
(Locked)
Sleep2m 56s
-
(Locked)
March Madness4m 43s
-
(Locked)
Measuring what's important in business3m 28s
-
(Locked)
Baseball4m 41s
-
(Locked)
Income tax statistics1m 49s
-
(Locked)
College waiting lists4m 26s
-
The normal distribution is everywhere2m 53s
-
(Locked)
Horse racing statistics3m 45s
-
(Locked)
Statistics and the insurance industry2m 35s
-
(Locked)
Restaurant statistics2m 43s
-
(Locked)
Catching criminals with statistics2m 55s
-
(Locked)
Getting directions from statistics2m 43s
-
(Locked)
Lyme disease2m 55s
-
(Locked)
Quality control in manufacturing2m 36s
-
(Locked)
Zoo animal statistics2m 41s
-
(Locked)
Earthquakes2m 54s
-
(Locked)
Statistics of hunting2m 48s
-
(Locked)
Transcontinental convoy2m 7s
-
Moon landing3m 44s
-
(Locked)
Summer movies2m 56s
-
(Locked)
Reliability3m 47s
-
(Locked)
Woodstock3m 44s
-
(Locked)
Hurricanes2m 47s
-
(Locked)
P-hacking2m 49s
-
(Locked)
Salaries2m 51s
-
(Locked)
Dow Jones3m
-
(Locked)
Population3m 23s
-
(Locked)
Epidemiology2m 55s
-
(Locked)
Rock stars3m 44s
-
(Locked)
Acceptance sampling3m 18s
-
(Locked)
The value of my change4m 42s
-
(Locked)
In-game win probabilities3m 39s
-
(Locked)
Stock market ups and downs3m 18s
-
(Locked)
Prohibition3m 30s
-
(Locked)
Bayes' theorem4m 15s
-
(Locked)
Divorce3m 35s
-
(Locked)
The U.S. Census3m 26s
-
(Locked)
English3m 8s
-
(Locked)
Santa Claus3m 47s
-
(Locked)
Parenting3m 6s
-
Proportions of coins4m 53s
-
(Locked)
Safe travel3m 23s
-
(Locked)
Election polling methodologies2m 57s
-
(Locked)
Is your data any good?3m 44s
-
(Locked)
Storytelling with data2m 41s
-
(Locked)
The middle of my data3m 21s
-
(Locked)
The ubiquitous bell curve3m 23s
-
(Locked)
Decoding polling results3m 27s
-
(Locked)
What is an outlier?3m 15s
-
(Locked)
Statistical bias3m 45s
-
(Locked)
The importance of regression analysis3m 38s
-
(Locked)
Understanding probabilities3m 23s
-
(Locked)
Statistics tools3m 19s
-
Modern organizations use statistics3m 16s
-
(Locked)
Combinations3m 46s
-
(Locked)
Measuring variation3m 55s
-
(Locked)
Sample space3m 51s
-
(Locked)
Election win probabilities3m 41s
-
(Locked)
Cognitive bias4m
-
(Locked)
Forecasting3m 13s
-
(Locked)
Toilet paper4m 5s
-
(Locked)
Winning streaks3m 6s
-
(Locked)
Coffee3m 6s
-
(Locked)
Vaccines2m 44s
-
(Locked)
Superfans2m 50s
-
(Locked)
US Presidents2m 51s
-
(Locked)
The cost of owning a pet2m 45s
-
(Locked)
Funny movies3m 23s
-
Success in the music industry2m 23s
-
(Locked)
Home Improvement3m 4s
-
(Locked)
Youth sports3m 30s
-
(Locked)
Mental health2m 43s
-
(Locked)
Chocolate2m
-
(Locked)
Baby statistics2m 30s
-
(Locked)
Books2m 48s
-
(Locked)
Commutes2m 43s
-
(Locked)
Farms2m 15s
-
(Locked)
Hip hop2m 50s
-
(Locked)
Mass transit2m 43s
-
(Locked)
Major league baseball3m 19s
-
(Locked)
Placebos2m 54s
-
(Locked)
Podcasts2m 13s
-
(Locked)
Social media2m 44s
-
(Locked)
Supply chains2m 51s
-