Join Conrad Carlberg for an in-depth discussion in this video Next steps, part of Business Analytics: Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing.
- [Conrad] In this course you've seen…how to create forecasts from a horizontal,…stationary baseline.…But the techniques are just as important…when your baseline is not stationary.…Forecasting the next level, which you learned about…in this course, is a critical part…of forecasting a trended, a seasonal,…or a trended and seasonal baseline.…As a next step, I'd recommend that you seek out…material on Holt's method,…and on Holt-Winters forecasts,…and more recent work on damped trends…that's taking the field in new directions.…
- Demonstrate how to evaluate a baseline using a correlogram.
- Identify the drawbacks of using Microsoft Excel’s exponential smoothing tool.
- Explain the different ways you can initialize the first forecast.
- Compare the average raw deviation forecast with the mean absolute deviation forecast method.
- Break down the reasons to use R instead of Excel for exponential smoothing.