Join Michael McDonald for an in-depth discussion in this video Next steps, part of Applied Economic Forecasting with Big Data.
- In this course, we've talked about…using economic data in forecasting.…And a number of different methods…and techniques you can use to do those forecasts.…We've demonstrated using the FRED Excel add-in…to pull in a variety of data,…based on different project needs.…And we've explained how to make forecasts…with serially correlated data…and techniques like exponential smoothing.…We've also discussed advanced forecasting tools,…like binary and fixed effects regressions.…If you keep these lessons in mind,…I forecast a bright future ahead for you…in the dismal science.…
So, where should we go from here?…Well, remember economic forecasting is imperfect…and there are always new challenges arising.…So, keep developing your skills and be creative,…when looking at questions you can answer with a forecast.…Look for ways to use macro and microeconomic data…in forecasts, for your day to day role.…Think about how forecasting fits…into the broader data analytics world.…And of course, keep an eye out…for new courses to come, in the future, in the library.…
Professor Michael McDonald demonstrates how to harness the wealth of information available on the Internet to forecast statistics such as industry growth, GDP, and unemployment rates, as well as factors that directly affect your business, like property prices and future interest rate hikes. All you need is Microsoft Excel. Michael uses the built-in formulas, functions, and calculations to perform regression analysis, calculate confidence intervals, and stress test your results. He also covers time series exponential smoothing, fixed effects regression, and difference estimators. You'll walk away from the course able to immediately begin creating forecasts for your own business needs.
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- Understanding big data and economic forecasting
- Predicting values with regressions
- Analyzing economic trends and economic cycles
- Using fixed-effects regressions and binary regressions for forecasting
- Assessing the accuracy of an economic forecast
- Using scenario analysis