Learn about tools that can be used to make forecasts.
- [Instructor] There are three methods of forecasting…that are commonly used in economics and business analytics.…Causal methods, time series methods,…and qualitative methods.…Each of these three different methods…has various tools and techniques…that fall underneath the silo in question.…And each of these methods is going to be appropriate…in different kinds of circumstances.…Causal methods typically involves regression analysis…and some of the different types…of specialized regression analysis…that are going to be useful in various circumstances.…
Time series methods often involves various forms…of trend analysis.…Things like exponential smoothing,…trend prediction, et cetera.…And then qualitative methods involve using surveys…and other subjective ad hoc methods…of gathering data in order to make predictions.…In causal forecasting we're relying…on relationships between variables.…We're going to use statistical techniques,…like regression analysis, multiple regression,…and various types of specialized forms of regression,…
Professor Michael McDonald demonstrates how to harness the wealth of information available on the Internet to forecast statistics such as industry growth, GDP, and unemployment rates, as well as factors that directly affect your business, like property prices and future interest rate hikes. All you need is Microsoft Excel. Michael uses the built-in formulas, functions, and calculations to perform regression analysis, calculate confidence intervals, and stress test your results. He also covers time series exponential smoothing, fixed effects regression, and difference estimators. You'll walk away from the course able to immediately begin creating forecasts for your own business needs.
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- Identify a good source of free data.
- Name the term for the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Tell which statistic offers a bounds on the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Assess the type of variable that can be used to capture fixed effects.
- Cite the method by which a forecast can be done with a regression.