Author
Michael McDonald
Released
7/19/2017Professor Michael McDonald demonstrates how to harness the wealth of information available on the Internet to forecast statistics such as industry growth, GDP, and unemployment rates, as well as factors that directly affect your business, like property prices and future interest rate hikes. All you need is Microsoft Excel. Michael uses the built-in formulas, functions, and calculations to perform regression analysis, calculate confidence intervals, and stress test your results. He also covers time series exponential smoothing, fixed effects regression, and difference estimators. You'll walk away from the course able to immediately begin creating forecasts for your own business needs.
- Identify a good source of free data.
- Name the term for the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Tell which statistic offers a bounds on the estimate of the impact of an X variable on a Y variable.
- Assess the type of variable that can be used to capture fixed effects.
- Cite the method by which a forecast can be done with a regression.
Skill Level Intermediate
Duration
Views
- Hello, I'm Dr. Michael McDonald. I'm a professor of finance and consultant to industry. I've been teaching forecasting, using data, for more than a decade, to financial firms, Fortune 500 companies and government agencies. In this course, I'm going to show you how to effectively use economic data in practical business forecasting settings. Data analytics is one of the hottest growth areas in business and it is a key opportunity for those looking to develop their career.
In this course I will demonstrate how to gather data from government sources, like the Federal Reserve, and use that data to forecast critical variables, like property prices and interest rate hikes. We'll explore a variety of different types of forecasts, from time series exponential smoothing, to fixed effects regressions, to difference in difference estimators. Please join me know, and let's get started.
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Introduction
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Welcome1m 2s
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What you should know1m 23s
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1. The Basics
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Basics of economic analysis2m 11s
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Sources of economic data6m 33s
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Economic forecasting methods3m 57s
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2. Economic Cycles
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Serial correlation in data7m 10s
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Analyzing results9m 15s
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3. Forecast Economic Trends
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Binary regressions2m 23s
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4. Use Economic Forecasts
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Understanding economic output11m 50s
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Forecast accuracy8m 44s
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Scenario analysis7m 25s
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Conclusion
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Next steps1m 13s
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Video: Welcome