Considering the rippling effect of decisions is a necessary requirement of systems thinking, it’s a critical decision-making step, and it’s one of the most overlooked considerations in stressful situations. Learn how to pair waves of stress with divergent thinking techniques to consider potential rippling effects of your decisions.
- There are a lot of techniques to analyze risk … from the decisions we make. … SWOT, fault tree, hazard operability analysis, … but sometimes we're just stressed out … and we feel like we need to make a decision in the moment. … We don't have time to pull out the tools and models. … It seems easier to settle on a quick decision … to solve the immediate problem. … It can be tempting to stop at first-order thinking. … First-order thinking is the process … of considering the intended or obvious consequences … of a decision. … Like, I can't find my key, this person said … they could help me break into my car, … I'm deciding to let them help me. … Or you're telling me that our new widget … won't be ready next quarter? … Our forecasts include sales from the widget next quarter. … We're shipping the widget. … To illuminate the rippling effects … from decisions we make in the moment … requires us to practice second-order thinking, … the process of uncovering the implications … of first-order impact. …
Author
Becki Saltzman
Released
5/19/2020Skill Level Intermediate
Duration
Views
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Introduction
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1. Preparing Yourself
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2. Options and Outcomes
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3. Getting Insights
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4. Emergency Leadership
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Video: Revealing the ripple effect in high-stress decision-making