From the course: Improving Your Judgment for Better Decision-Making
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How to judge the future
From the course: Improving Your Judgment for Better Decision-Making
How to judge the future
- A 20 year study by Philip Tetlock used over 82,000 estimates to see how well experts predict the future. The results were famously shocking. Turns out, experts are horrible forecasters, and the more confident they are about their predictions, the worse they do. Tetlock's study found one subgroup that was better at seeing the future, and they differed in one important way. They weren't experts in any single discipline, instead they borrowed ideas from many disciplines. Tetlock called them foxes. Foxes avoid overconfidence, remain curious, and know and integrate many little things. Highly specialized, deeply focused experts who know one big thing, Tetlock called hedgehogs. You want to get better at judging the future? Think like a fox. Like Natara, who's success required foxy thinking. Natara was an assistant for a record label, and her job was to identify new talent and predict music industry trends. Your…
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