Learn how to develop seasonal factors over several years of quarterly data, and apply them to a forecasting model to create a baseline in Microsoft Excel.
- [Instructor] I'm in the 02_04_Begin Exercise File.…Just so we can visualize our data…I'm going to go ahead and create another line chart…of the data that we already have.…So I'm going to go to Insert, Line.…And I can see that there's some zig-zags in here…and these zig-zags may or may not follow a pattern,…I'm not really sure yet.…So we can tease out a seasonal effect…and I'll show you how to do that here.…I'm going to go and get rid of this graph for now,…it's not really useful to us anymore.…And I'm going to scroll over to columns J and K.…
You can see that I've split up my Sales…by Quarter of every year,…but in order for me to develop a seasonal effect…I need to develop some factors.…So I've split up my data by quarters…and I'll develop some factors for each quarter.…In column O I'll make a list of my quarters really quickly,…and that's simply 1, 2, 3, and 4.…And in column P I'll make a header for Factors…and those are something that we're going to have to calculate.…So, for example, if I want to calculate…
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- Explain the four different types of financial statements.
- Distinguish between the types of moving averages.
- Determine a seasonal adjusted trend.
- Break down pro-forma financial statements.
- Identify cash flows, and what increased liabilities and decreased earnings generally indicate.
- Tell what a regression is.
- Outline the naive approach.