Explore the downside of using a univariate model and how to avoid jumping to conclusions.
- Did you know that the sales of ice cream increase…as the number of shark attacks do?…If we map this on a scatter plot, we would see a trend…with a positive slope.…One that most likely can be fitted with a linear regression.…Does that mean that these two things are directly related?…Does one cause the other?…No, of course not.…As the old saying goes, correlation isn't the same…as causation.…Just 'cause two variables are correlated,…doesn't mean that one effects the other.…
In other words, that R square value…doesn't tell the full story.…Let's think about those sharks and ice cream cones again.…It seems that these things are correlated according…to our graph, but that doesn't mean that one…causes the other.…There is a hidden story here.…This hidden story is often referred to as a hidden variable.…A hidden variable is one that's correlated…with each of the two variables on the graph.…These two variables in this case are the number…of shark attacks and the number of ice cream sales.…
They're not fundamentally related to one another.…
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- Explain the four different types of financial statements.
- Distinguish between the types of moving averages.
- Determine a seasonal adjusted trend.
- Break down pro-forma financial statements.
- Identify cash flows, and what increased liabilities and decreased earnings generally indicate.
- Tell what a regression is.
- Outline the naive approach.